
The UK is forecast to experience weaker growth and higher inflation due to the impact of the war in the Middle East, according to an influential global policy group.
It means this year the UK is expected to have the second-highest inflation rate among the G7 group of advanced economies - at 4%, the Organisation of Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) said.
The body has also downgraded forecasts for many of the world's biggest economies due to the US-Israel war with Iran.
A prolonged conflict could trigger "significant energy shortages" globally, it warned, while if the sharp rise in fertiliser prices is sustained crop yields will be impacted and food prices will soar next year.
The OECD's new forecast for UK inflation is up from the rate of 2.5% it had predicted at its previous report in December.
It then forecasts inflation to drop to 2.6% in 2027 - still up from its previous projection of 2.1%.
Economic growth is now forecast to be 0.7% in the UK this year, down from 1.2% it had previously expected. Its forecast for 2027 is unchanged.
In early March the government's official forecaster, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR), cut its expected growth rate for 2026 to 1.1% from the 1.4% it predicted in last year's Budget.
But this forecast was made before the Iran war, which the OBR said could have a "very significant" impact on economies.
Among G7 countries, only the US is predicted to have higher inflation than the UK in the OECD's forecast, while only Italy is expected to see weaker growth.
Global growth is expected to fall to 2.9% this year before nudging up to 3% in 2027. And inflation across the G20 countries is predicted to be 4%, up from previously expected, dropping back to 2.7% next year.
The OECD said its predictions depend on the assumption that the current energy market disruption eases, with oil, gas and fertiliser prices falling from summer onwards.
It said measures from governments to cushion households from the impact of higher energy prices "should be timely, well-targeted on households most in need and viable firms, preserve incentives to lower energy use and have clear expiry mechanisms".
Policies that improve domestic energy use and lower reliance on imported fossil fuels over the medium term were a priority, it added.
The forecast comes as UK clothing retailer Next warned it was likely to have to raise prices for customers if the Iran war persists.
It said overseas sales had been strong up to when the conflict in the Middle East broke out, and instability may continue to restrain growth in that region.
latest_posts
- 1
Vote In favor of Your Favored Occasion Arranging Administration - 2
FOX8 Meteorologist Charles Ewing makes his 2025-26 winter weather predictions! - 3
Why is Jerome Powell being investigated? Making sense of the DOJ's probe into the Federal Reserve chair. - 4
How to watch Dick Clark’s New Year’s Rockin’ Eve with Ryan Seacrest: Start time, TV channel, performers and more - 5
The most effective method to Really Adjust Hypothesis and Practice in Your Brain science Studies
Orcas seen hunting great white sharks to eat their livers in drone footage recorded in Mexico
UK to hold fresh pork, other affected Spanish products at border amid African swine fever outbreak
Minneapolis ICE shooting: Woman dies after federal agent opens fire on her vehicle amid immigration crackdown
Brazil Passes Law to Use Seized Bitcoin, Crypto to Fund Public Security Measures
Make your choice for the sweet that transports you to its nation of beginning!
New Gaza militia declares war on Hamas: 'Your dirty shoes are more honorable'
The Starbucks for Life game is back, along with your chance to win a 'Bearista' cold cup. Here's how to get your paws on one.
Understanding Preschool Projects: Cultivating Abilities and Advancement
Palestinians forced from West Bank refugee camps left in limbo as Israeli demolitions go on













